Research and Studies
Feature Articles and Working Papers
Topical researches and analyses on economic matters related to Hong Kong
17 May 2024
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Economic Letters
Articles on various economic topics, written by economists from the Office of the Government Economist
9 October 2023
- The natural rate of unemployment in Hong Kong: An update
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Kelvin Wong
This article provides an update on Hong Kong’s natural rate of unemployment, as measured by the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), with data up to 2022. The estimation is based on a structural regression model that allows interactions between price inflation, wage growth and unemployment rate. The results indicate that the NAIRU for Hong Kong remained broadly stable from 1994 to 2010, averaging 3.7% over that period before rising to 4.4% in 2012, then gradually falling to 2.8% in 2018 and hovering around 3.0% in the ensuing years.
18 November 2022
- Residential property prices and consumer price inflation in Hong Kong
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James P Vere
This article examines the relationship between residential property prices and consumer price inflation in Hong Kong with quarterly data from 1984 to 2021. In principle, as private residential property prices are asset prices, they should move in advance of private housing rents and may be correlated with other types of expenditures as well. Results from a vector error correction model show that, in the long run, movements in private residential property prices are fully reflected in the private housing rental component of Hong Kong's Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI). The long-run elasticity of overall consumer prices with respect to private residential property prices is about 0.6.
Major Supportive Works
Analysis and research support to the works of various Government committees / working groups / task forces provided by the Office of the Government Economist
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