Latest Developments

Gross Domestic Product and its major components (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The Hong Kong economy expanded strongly in the third quarter of 2026, underpinned by a further pick-up in already buoyant external trade growth and solid domestic demand. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated to 5.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, up from 4.2% growth in the preceding quarter. For the first three quarters of 2026 combined, real GDP grew by 5.1% over a year earlier, the fastest pace in five years for the corresponding period. Looking ahead, the Hong Kong economy is poised for a strong full-year performance, supported by robust global artificial intelligence (AI) investment and related trade. Entering the fourth quarter, incoming data pointed to sustained growth momentum. Exports of services are expected to benefit from continued growth in visitor arrivals and steady demand for cross-boundary financial and business services. Domestic demand is expected to remain resilient, supported by rising labour earnings, solid consumer sentiment and continued private sector investment. Nonetheless, uncertainties in the external environment persist. Although the United States (US) midterm election results have raised hopes of de-escalation, prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could intensify global inflationary pressures and affect major central banks’ monetary policy paths. A potential resurgence of trade tensions, rising sovereign bond yields in major advanced economies amid high public debt, and a possible market correction if expectations for AI prove too optimistic also warrant close monitoring. Taking into account the actual outturn in the first three quarters of the year and with the expectation of further solid growth in the fourth quarter, the real GDP growth forecast for 2026 as a whole is revised up to 4.8%, from 3.5% – 4.5% in the August round of review. The Government will continue to closely monitor the situation. On the inflation outlook, consumer price inflation has so far been lower than expected, reflecting the slower-than-anticipated pass-through of higher international oil prices to fuel-related components, in which the alleviation effect from the Government’s relevant measures including the fuel subsidies earlier also played a part. Although oil prices eased after the US midterm elections, the geopolitical situation remains uncertain, and the pass-through of elevated oil prices earlier is likely to continue into 2027. Nevertheless, as price pressures on other fronts are expected to remain largely contained, overall inflation should stay moderate. Taking into account the actual inflation outturn in the first three quarters of the year and the factors mentioned above, the forecasts for the underlying and headline consumer price inflation rates for 2026 are revised down to 1.9% and 2.0% respectively, from 2.5% and 2.6% in the August round of review.


External sector (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
Merchandise exports surged further by 64.9% over a year earlier in value terms in September, driven by sustained stellar performance in exports of AI-related electronic products, marking the twentieth consecutive month of double-digit growth and the fastest monthly year-on-year growth in over four decades. Exports to all major markets increased notably.
Looking ahead, Hong Kong’s merchandise trade performance will continue to benefit from the prevailing wave of robust AI-related investment and the resilient global economic growth. Nonetheless, external uncertainties warrant close monitoring, including the Middle East conflict, trade protectionist measures by major economies, and risks associated with the rapid expansion of global investment in AI.


Prices (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The underlying Composite CPI rose by 2.1% in September over a year earlier, up from 1.9% in the preceding month, largely driven by faster price increases in fuel-related items. Yet, price increases of other components were largely modest, thus keeping overall inflation moderate.
Looking ahead, consumer price inflation will remain under upward pressure, as persistently elevated international oil prices feed through to fuel-related components amid ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Yet, as price pressures on other fronts are expected to remain largely contained, overall inflation should stay moderate.


Labour market (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged up by 0.1 percentage point over the preceding three-month period to 3.9% in July – September 2026. The underemployment rate also rose slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 2.0%. Over the same period, both the labour force and total employment increased further amid the continued influx of fresh graduates and school leavers into the labour market.
Looking ahead, the sustained expansion of the local economy, improving business sentiment and continued growth in visitor arrivals are expected to underpin the overall employment situation, particularly in the consumption- and tourism-related sectors. Meanwhile, the Government will continue to closely monitor the potential impacts of external uncertainties on corporate hiring sentiments and provide job-seekers with appropriate support.


Retail and other economic indicators (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
Total retail sales value grew at a faster year-on-year rate of 6.4% in September, marking the 17th consecutive month of expansion. Growth in sales was broad-based across many types of retail outlet, reflecting solid local consumption sentiment in general. A pick-up in visitor arrivals and sales of festive items associated with the earlier arrival of Mid-Autumn Festival this year also contributed to growth in overall sales in the month. Meanwhile, online retail sales value rose further visibly alongside consumers’ growing use of digital channels.
Looking ahead, sustained solid economic expansion and growth in labour earnings will bolster local consumption. A series of upcoming mega-events and festive celebrations in various districts, together with continued growth in inbound tourism, will inject additional momentum to the retail sector. The Government will continue to monitor the potential impacts of the evolving external headwinds on the local consumption market closely.


Other Economic Indicators


Hong Kong population (PDF) (Excel)


Regional headquarters/offices and external investments (PDF) (Excel)


Asset market, exchange rates and interest rates (PDF) (Excel)