Latest Developments

Gross Domestic Product and its major components (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The Hong Kong economy continued to expand robustly in the second quarter of 2026, underpinned by buoyant external trade and resilient domestic demand. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.3% in the second quarter over a year earlier, following 5.9% growth in the preceding quarter. For the first half of 2026, real GDP grew by 5.1% over a year earlier, the strongest half-yearly performance in nearly five years. Looking ahead, the Hong Kong economy should see solid growth in the second half of 2026. The vibrant global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related electronic products is expected to continue supporting Hong Kong’s merchandise trade performance, and related logistics services should benefit from this momentum as well. Exports of services are also expected to benefit from sustained growth in visitor arrivals, alongside steady demand for financial and business services in Hong Kong. Domestic demand is expected to stay firm, supported by stable labour market conditions, and solid business and consumer sentiment. Nonetheless, external headwinds persist. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain fluid, with potential spillovers to energy markets and global inflation. Inflation dynamics in major economies, the policy trajectories of major central banks, and trade protectionism among advanced economies warrant close attention. Risks associated with the rapid expansion of global AI investment also require monitoring. Taking into account the stronger-than-expected actual outturn in the first half of the year and the near-term outlook, the real GDP growth forecast for 2026 as a whole is revised up to 3.5% – 4.5%, from 2.5% – 3.5% in the May round of review. The Government will continue to closely monitor the situation. On the inflation outlook, consumer price inflation is expected to rise in the coming months as the earlier surge in international oil prices continues to feed through. The lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased the uncertainty of inflation outlook. Meanwhile, price pressures in other areas remain largely contained, which should keep overall inflation at a moderate level. Taking into account the actual inflation outturn in the first half of the year and the factors mentioned above, the forecasts for the underlying and headline consumer price inflation rates for 2026 are maintained at 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, same as those in the May round of review.


External sector (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
Merchandise exports continued to surge in June. The value of merchandise exports grew by 53.4% over a year earlier, as global demand for AI-related electronic products stayed strong. Exports to most major markets continued to increase markedly.
Looking ahead, the robust demand for AI-related electronic products globally should render continued support to Hong Kong’s merchandise trade performance. Yet, the recent re-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East deserves attention. The Government will continue to closely monitor the situation for any implications on export performance.


Prices (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The underlying Composite CPI rose by 1.9% in June over a year earlier, same as the preceding month. Increases in prices of fuel-related items continued to accelerate, while relatively modest price pressures in other components partly offset the overall rise.
Looking ahead, consumer price inflation is expected to rise in the coming months as the earlier surges in international oil prices continue to feed through. The recent moderation in international oil prices from previous peaks may provide some relief; however, the renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East warrants close monitoring. Meanwhile, price pressures in other areas remain largely contained, which should keep overall inflation at a moderate level.


Labour market (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stayed at 3.7% in April – June 2026, same as that in the preceding three-month period. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 1.6%. Over the same period, the labour force and total employment increased slightly.
Looking ahead, the ongoing economic expansion should continue to support the overall labour market, though the entry of fresh graduates and school leavers during the summer may bring some impact. The Government is also closely monitoring the potential implications of the external uncertainties on corporate hiring sentiment.


Retail and other economic indicators (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The latest retail sales figures indicate that the sector remains on a positive trajectory. The value of total retail sales increased for the 14th consecutive month in June, recording a growth rate of 4.6%. Cumulatively, total retail sales value in the first half of the year was 9.6% higher than a year earlier.
Growth was broad-based across many retail categories. Continued economic expansion, rising local incomes, and a steady increase in inbound visitors are expected to provide support to the sector. Yet, external uncertainties constitute downside risk. The Government will continue to closely monitor the potential impacts of external developments on the local consumption market.


Other Economic Indicators


Hong Kong population (PDF) (Excel)


Regional headquarters/offices and external investments (PDF) (Excel)


Asset market, exchange rates and interest rates (PDF) (Excel)