Latest Developments

Gross Domestic Product and its major components (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The Hong Kong economy expanded solidly in the first quarter of 2025, mainly supported by visible increases in exports of goods and services, as well as the resumption of moderate growth in overall investment expenditure. Yet, private consumption expenditure continued to register a modest decline. Real GDP expanded by 3.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, picking up from the 2.5% growth in the preceding quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP grew visibly by 1.9%. As international trade tensions have eased somewhat of late, the headwinds and uncertainties in the external environment have lessened to some extent. This may relieve part of the downward pressure on the global economic outlook. Moreover, the sustained steady growth of the Mainland economy amid more proactive fiscal policies and the moderately accommodative monetary policies should bode well for the performance of merchandise exports in Asia including Hong Kong. Sustained international trade flows, coupled with improving inbound tourism, are also expected to benefit Hong Kong’s exports of services. However, uncertainties in the trade policies of the United States persist, and its monetary policy trajectory going forward is still complicated. These may affect global financial conditions and investment sentiment. Apart from this, the change in consumption patterns of residents and visitors would still pose constraints on driving consumption in the domestic market, though sustained increase in employment earnings and the SAR Government’s various policies to promote mega events and tourism would help boost consumption sentiment. Taking into account the actual outturn in the first quarter and the latest developments of the global and local situation, the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 as a whole is maintained at 2%-3%, the same as that announced in the Budget. The forecast rates of underlying and headline consumer price inflation for 2025 are also maintained at 1.5% and 1.8% respectively.


External sector (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The value of merchandise exports continued to show resilience, picking up strongly by 15.5% in May over a year earlier. Exports to the Mainland and most other Asian markets grew visibly further. Exports to the European Union turned to moderate growth, while those to the United States fell.
Looking ahead, the sustained steady growth in the Mainland economy and Hong Kong’s enhanced economic and trade ties with different markets should render support to trade performance. The Government will continue to closely monitor the external environment and stay vigilant to the elevated geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding trade policies.


Prices (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
Consumer price inflation stayed modest in recent months. The underlying Composite CPI increased by 1.0% over a year earlier in May, giving an increase of 1.2% in the first five months of the year. Price pressures on various major components were contained in general.
Looking ahead, overall inflation should remain modest in the near term. Pressures from domestic costs and external prices should stay broadly in check. The Government will monitor the situation closely. The Government will monitor the situation closely.


Labour market (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
Compared with the preceding three-month period, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate posted a modest uptick of 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% in March – May 2025. The underemployment rate also edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 1.4%. The labour force and total employment decreased further to 3 800 500 and 3 664 700 respectively.
Looking ahead, the pace of job creation will continue to be affected by the evolvement of different industries amidst the continuing uncertain external environment and the changing consumption patterns of locals and visitors. Besides, the entry of fresh graduates and school leavers in the coming few months may further impact the overall employment situation. That said, we are delighted to see the steady expansion of the Hong Kong economy with real Gross Domestic Product in 2025 forecast to grow by 2% to 3%, and the injection of new impetus to the market by local and non-local operators as reflected by the numbers of registered local and foreign companies having reached new heights in recent months. These positive developments should render support to the labour market and sustain the momentum of Hong Kong’s economic development.


Retail and other economic indicators (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
Retail sales performance showed signs of stabilisation in recent months. The value of total retail sales recorded a modest year-on-year decline of 2.3% in April 2025. The decline narrowed further in April compared with the previous months despite the effect of the late arrival of the Easter holidays this year (in mid-April this year but in the junction of March and April last year) when more residents made outbound trips during the month.
Looking ahead, the Government’s proactive promotion of tourism and mega events will help stimulate the consumption market. Increase in employment earnings and sustained steady growth of the Mainland economy will also bolster consumption sentiment. These factors will be supportive to the retail sector, though ongoing changes in consumption patterns and competition among businesses amid the uncertain macroeconomic environment will still pose challenges.


Other Economic Indicators


Hong Kong population (PDF) (Excel)


Regional headquarters/offices and external investments (PDF) (Excel)


Asset market, exchange rates and interest rates (PDF) (Excel)