Latest Developments

Gross Domestic Product and its major components (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The Hong Kong economy continued to expand robustly in the second quarter of 2026, underpinned by buoyant external trade and resilient domestic demand. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.3% in the second quarter over a year earlier, following 5.9% growth in the preceding quarter. For the first half of 2026, real GDP grew by 5.1% over a year earlier, the strongest half-yearly performance in nearly five years. Looking ahead, the Hong Kong economy should see solid growth in the second half of 2026. The vibrant global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related electronic products is expected to continue supporting Hong Kong’s merchandise trade performance, and related logistics services should benefit from this momentum as well. Exports of services are also expected to benefit from sustained growth in visitor arrivals, alongside steady demand for financial and business services in Hong Kong. Domestic demand is expected to stay firm, supported by stable labour market conditions, and solid business and consumer sentiment. Nonetheless, external headwinds persist. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain fluid, with potential spillovers to energy markets and global inflation. Inflation dynamics in major economies, the policy trajectories of major central banks, and trade protectionism among advanced economies warrant close attention. Risks associated with the rapid expansion of global AI investment also require monitoring. Taking into account the stronger-than-expected actual outturn in the first half of the year and the near-term outlook, the real GDP growth forecast for 2026 as a whole is revised up to 3.5% – 4.5%, from 2.5% – 3.5% in the May round of review. The Government will continue to closely monitor the situation. On the inflation outlook, consumer price inflation is expected to rise in the coming months as the earlier surge in international oil prices continues to feed through. The lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased the uncertainty of inflation outlook. Meanwhile, price pressures in other areas remain largely contained, which should keep overall inflation at a moderate level. Taking into account the actual inflation outturn in the first half of the year and the factors mentioned above, the forecasts for the underlying and headline consumer price inflation rates for 2026 are maintained at 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, same as those in the May round of review.


External sector (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
Merchandise exports continued to surge in June. The value of merchandise exports grew by 53.4% over a year earlier, as global demand for AI-related electronic products stayed strong. Exports to most major markets continued to increase markedly.
Looking ahead, the robust demand for AI-related electronic products globally should render continued support to Hong Kong’s merchandise trade performance. Yet, the recent re-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East deserves attention. The Government will continue to closely monitor the situation for any implications on export performance.


Prices (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The underlying Composite CPI rose by 1.9% in July over a year earlier, same as the preceding month. Inflation of fuel-related items stayed high, with some showing accelerated increases. Yet, overall inflation remained moderate, as price pressures on other components were generally contained.
Looking ahead, the continued feed-through of higher international oil prices to fuel-related components will pose upward pressure to consumer price inflation. While the lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a key source of uncertainty, overall inflation should continue to stay moderate as price pressures on other fronts remain broadly in check.


Labour market (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stayed at 3.7% in May – July 2026, same as that in the preceding three-month period. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 1.7%. Over the same period, both the labour force and total employment increased further.
Looking ahead, the ongoing expansion of the local economy is expected to underpin overall labour market conditions, though fresh graduates and school leavers entering the labour market may pose some pressure on the unemployment rate. The potential impacts of external headwinds on corporate hiring sentiments also continue to warrant attention.


Retail and other economic indicators (PDF) (Excel)

Latest situation
The latest retail sales figures indicate that the sector remains on a positive trajectory. The value of total retail sales increased for the 14th consecutive month in June, recording a growth rate of 4.6%. Cumulatively, total retail sales value in the first half of the year was 9.6% higher than a year earlier.
Growth was broad-based across many retail categories. Continued economic expansion, rising local incomes, and a steady increase in inbound visitors are expected to provide support to the sector. Yet, external uncertainties constitute downside risk. The Government will continue to closely monitor the potential impacts of external developments on the local consumption market.


Other Economic Indicators


Hong Kong population (PDF) (Excel)


Regional headquarters/offices and external investments (PDF) (Excel)


Asset market, exchange rates and interest rates (PDF) (Excel)